Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia’s new president-elect, has completed his evolution from ex-special forces strongman accused of human rights violations against pro-democratic activists to head of the world’s third largest democracy of almost 300 million people.

Throughout the course of his campaign, the ostensibly cuddly grandpa cultivated TikTok and the use of AI to appeal to younger generations in an effort to soften his military image. He went viral with his signature dance move. An impressive feat of public relations, one which some fear smacks of a populist’s social media savvy.

But Indonesian democrats have every right to fear the former Defence Minister’s ascent to power and the subsequent possibility of autocratic leadership. Kornelius Purba, an editor at The Jakarta Post, notes Prabowo’s admiration for Putin and respect for the Russian leader among the Indonesian electorate.

But what’s the evidence to suggest Prabowo could go the way of Xi and Putin and pursue a more populist bent? Some commentators think he will continue the progress made under President Jokowi in improving Indonesia’s infrastructure and investment opportunities in attempt to reach 7% national growth.

The country is rich in palm oil, minerals, oil, coal, nickel, and stainless steel. It enjoys strong trade relationships with China and the US to whom it exports $54.5B and $26.2B respectively (according to the OEC).

The biggest concern relates to Prabowo’s time in the Indonesian special forces (in 1976 he was a commander in the Kopassus group, which was active in East Timor) and the disappearance of pro-democracy activists when the country transitioned from the authoritarian era of President Suharto to reformist democracy in 1998.

Prabowo was dishonourably discharged from the military and banned from entering the US on grounds of human rights violations.

In the 2014 presidential race, which he lost to his rival-turned-endorser Jokowi, the same fears were propagated among human rights campaigners that Prabowo would spurn free elections and take Indonesia in a more authoritarian direction.

For now, Prabowo will hit the ground running with planned reforms to education, and a clear agenda to enhance international ties with China and the US and others.

“This victory should be the victory for all Indonesians,” he said in a thundering speech last week. “We will assemble a government consisting of the best sons and daughters of Indonesia.”